Headline
Company reporting dominates a quiet macro day: DATA cuts full-year margin guidance while KEYS and BIG flag upside, and no ONS, BoE or HMT releases land.
What UK Plc said today
No profit warnings in the operating universe, but the standout negative is DATA downgrading tone alongside its H1: full-year revenue now tracks at the "lower end" of expectations and adjusted EBITDA is guided "below market expectations," with management conceding "the benefits of the transformation have not yet been reflected in our financial performance." CER also lowered its FY2026 range to £46-48m as orders were "delayed or deferred," though it holds a 43-45% EBITDA margin and calls the back-order book "strong."
Against that, guidance beats came from KEYS, which said FY2027 revenue will be "comfortably ahead" and profits "materially ahead" of expectations on 501 principals (+23 in-period) and a 95.6% cash conversion, alongside a special 15p dividend; and BIG, expecting 2026 to land "marginally ahead" of consensus, with ARR up 5% to £53.2m and adjusted EBITDA margin at 53%. MPE lifted its interim dividend 39% to 25p as unit costs fell 8% and EPS rose 21%. KMK returned to growth in CBRN Detection (+17%) with first orders under the UK Radiological Nuclear Detection Framework (£1.7m) and an MoD biological-threat contract (£250k).
On capital actions, LGEN began the £600m second tranche of its £1.2bn buyback, and OIG is bidding 86p per share for Tribal Group, citing c.44p per share NAV uplift. KRS announced a transformative pivot out of US phosphate into Namibian copper via a 51% stake in Cornerstone, funded by a £1.7-1.8m placing at a 43% premium. SCGL is taking a £12m/60% stake in Finely Technology at a £20m valuation.
Statistical releases
No scheduled ONS releases today.
Policy / monetary
Nothing material from BoE or HMT.
Themes
- AI as both tailwind and valuation risk. KEYS is deploying CoCounsel Legal, DATA has launched an "AI-first" programme with a Microsoft 365 Copilot MCP integration, and HGT devotes "extensive discussion" to AI as "bifurcating software sector performance" — with its EV/EBITDA multiple contracting from 25.2x to 22.9x on public software weakness. The tell: professional-services adopters (KEYS) are guiding up; data/content incumbents (DATA) are guiding down.
- Capital returned, not deployed. LGEN £600m tranche live, KEYS £1.5m buyback plus 15p special, DATA £49m+ returned FY26-to-date, MPE +39% dividend, GRP €27.3m repurchased of a €50m programme. Cash return remains the default for defensively-positioned mid-caps.
- Guidance dispersion inside "in line." PWR reaffirms but revenue is -16.6% YoY on a US customer pull-back; ATC reaffirms but still runs an EBITDA loss; DATA and CER cut. Reaffirmation language is doing more work than the underlying numbers.
- UK planning friction. EOG flagged North Yorkshire Council's refusal of the Cloughton appraisal well "contrary to planning officers' recommendation and 13 independent expert reports" — a live cost for domestic energy projects.
Watch
- SAAS interim results 22 September 2026.
- SSIT full-year results 15 October 2026.
- KRS AGM vote on Cornerstone/Keras US transaction 12 October 2026.
- SCGL/Finely Technology completion targeted by 30 September 2026.
- PWR H1 investor presentation 30 September 2026; SAP go-live Q4 2026.
- GLE FY2026 results webinar 18 September 2026.
- EOG Fuhai farm-out completion targeted 30 September 2026; Barracuda spud now H1 2027.