GLOBALDATA PLC (DATA) — Investment Research Note

Executive Summary

GlobalData is a UK-listed subscription-based provider of proprietary industry data, analytics and insights across ~20 verticals, with a Healthcare division (60% owned; Inflexion PE holds 40%) and a Non-Healthcare division. The multi-year "Growth Transformation Plan" has stalled: underlying revenue growth has decelerated from mid-single digits to ~1% in H1 2026, and Adjusted EBITDA margin collapsed from 41% (2024) to 34% (2025) as heavy sales/AI investment and dilutive acquisitions hit before revenue synergies materialise. The single most important valuation anchor is the Inflexion transaction of Dec 2023, which valued 100% of Healthcare at £1,115m — a benchmark that, alongside Non-Healthcare, implies a sum-of-the-parts materially above the current £549m equity value; the Board itself flagged this in the 9 Jul 2026 update.

Fair Value Estimate

• Methodology: Sum-of-the-parts using FY25 segmental Adjusted EBITDA, cross-checked against Inflexion's 2024 transaction multiple and a blended EV/EBITDA on FY26 consensus.
• Segment build (FY25 Adj EBITDA):
  • Healthcare £61.8m at 14–17x (Inflexion paid ~22x on 2023 numbers): EV £865m–£1,051m; GlobalData PLC's 60% attributable share ≈ £519m–£631m
  • Non-Healthcare £50.2m at 8–11x (mid-single-digit growth business with margin recovery optionality): EV £402m–£552m
  • Corporate £(1.8)m unallocated
  • Blended attributable EV ≈ £919m–£1,181m
• Less: net bank debt £114.2m (FY25); tender offer of £30m in H2 2026 will nudge net debt higher.
• Equity fair value range: £800m–£1,050m, mid £925m.
• Per share (692.1m shares outstanding, pre-tender): 116p–152p, mid ~134p.
• Cross-check (EV/EBITDA on FY26 low-end consensus £126m): current EV ~£663m = 5.3x — far below peer subscription-data trading multiples (10–15x).
• Current market cap £548.8m ≈ 79p implied on 692m shares vs 85.5p print — implies upside of +35% to +78% to fair-value range, +57% to mid.

Sector Context

Sector classification confirmed as Industrial Goods and Services (ICB), though the operational profile is that of a data/analytics subscription business (deferred-revenue model, 74% subscription mix, high gross margins). Quality/growth profile is below what a well-executing peer would deliver right now (underlying growth stalled at 1%), but balance-sheet profile is in line (net debt/EBITDA ~1.0x). Listed comparables: RELX (REL.L), Informa (INF.L), and smaller Wilmington (WIL.L) / YouGov (YOU.L). GlobalData trades at a very sharp discount to RELX/Informa on both EV/EBITDA and EV/sales despite similar recurring-revenue economics.

Investment Thesis

• Sum-of-the-parts materially above market cap, validated by a real PE transaction. Inflexion invested at £1,115m for 100% of Healthcare (Dec 2023); Healthcare EBITDA has since grown to £61.8m at 50% margin. Board explicitly flagged in July 2026 that SoTP > current mcap 2026-07-09 trading update; 2024-03-04 FY23 results.
• Genuine proprietary-data + AI-native product story with Microsoft Copilot integration. AVA and Ava-in-Copilot embed GlobalData's proprietary content into enterprise workflows; 90% of customers now on AI Hub-enabled products, with AI Hub users tripling in 2025 2026-03-02 FY25 results; 2026-07-09 trading update. AI is a positive rather than negative disruptor for premium proprietary datasets.
• Significant operating-leverage optionality if growth reaccelerates. Cost base is now "well invested" with sales headcount and AI infrastructure funded; management guides to margin recovery from 34% back toward 40%, which on flat revenue would add ~£19m EBITDA (~17% profit uplift). Any revenue reacceleration would compound this given 74% subscription mix 2026-03-02 FY25 results; 2025-08-05 HY25 results.

Key Risks

• Underlying growth is stuck at ~1% despite heavy investment and management has cut FY26 EBITDA guidance to the low end of consensus; sales-force reorganisation "taking longer than expected" is now a two-year theme 2026-07-09 trading update; 2025-10-20 trading update. Value renewal rate slipped from 93% (2024) to 89% (2025).
• Founder-controlled float and governance concentration. Mike Danson owns ~60% of shares; two PE approaches (KKR, ICG) in H1 2025 were terminated without a bid; new CFO not arriving until Q3 2026 2025-06-11 offer discussions ended; 2026-03-02 FY25 results. Adverse remuneration votes (~17% against policy at 2026 AGM) signal shareholder concern.
• Acquisition integration risk & margin dilution. Six acquisitions integrated 2024-25; recent Non-Healthcare acquisitions have been "margin dilutive" and revenue synergies "not realised as quickly as we would have liked" 2026-03-02 FY25 results. LTIP targets missed in 2025 and expected to be missed in 2026.

Operating Leverage

GlobalData is a textbook operating-leverage story that has yet to inflect. Cost of sales (£161.7m in 2025) plus admin (£77.9m) against £322.1m revenue implies gross margin of ~50% and operating margin 25%, but on a truly incremental basis management explicitly guides that "cost investments are already reflected in the cost base and therefore we expect a significant incremental margin from revenue growth" 2026-03-02 FY25 results. The Healthcare segment already runs at 50% Adjusted EBITDA margin on £123m of revenue, illustrating what mature scale looks like; Non-Healthcare is at 25% on £199m and is the "levered" segment with most to gain. A 10–20% revenue beat over current £330m FY26 guide (£33–66m of additional revenue) at ~70% incremental margin (fixed platform costs already in place) would translate into +£23–46m of EBITDA — i.e. an 18–37% uplift on £126m guided EBITDA. Not "multiples of profit" — subscription businesses this size don't get quite that leveraged — but firmly in the 60-79 driver band.

Value-Trap Signals

• Underlying revenue growth stuck at ~1% for 18 months despite continuous "transformation" messaging.
• Value renewal rate declined from 93% to 89%; management guidance repeatedly cut through 2025-26 (H2 2025 margin lower than expected; FY26 EBITDA at low end).
• Dividend cut 40% in 2025 (rebased for capital allocation); LTIP targets missed 2025 and expected to miss 2026.
• Founder controls 60%, and two PE bids collapsed in 2025 without agreement — highlights concentrated decision-making.
• Recurring "restructuring, corporate projects and refinancing" adjusting items totalling £11.2m in 2025 vs £5.3m in 2024 — these adjusting items are becoming a run-rate feature.

Earnings vs. Expectations

Across the covered period, GlobalData was a beat/meet business in 2022-24 (FY22 came in ahead of consensus after Jan-23 pre-close update; FY23 delivered in line). The pattern deteriorated sharply in 2025: October 2025 trading update cut H2 EBITDA margin to ~37% from expectation and cut FY25 margin to ~35%; January 2026 update confirmed FY25 EBITDA at c.£110m with underlying revenue growth of just 1%; July 2026 update cut FY26 EBITDA guidance to the low end of the £126-134m consensus range. Net: 2022-24 delivered vs guidance, 2025-26 has been sequential margin/growth disappointments and cuts to consensus.

Conviction

Rating: 3 (moderate). The SoTP anchor is unusually strong for a public-market thesis — Inflexion's Dec-2023 investment establishes a clear third-party price marker for 60% of the underlying value, and Healthcare's 50% EBITDA margin is directly observable. Non-Healthcare valuation is more uncertain (growth is stuck; margin recovery is a call). Anchors: (i) Inflexion's benchmark valuation; (ii) 80% revenue visibility from Contracted Forward Revenue; (iii) transparent segment disclosure. Limiters: (i) inability to point to when growth reaccelerates — every trading update since mid-2025 has pushed the recovery further out; (ii) founder-controlled register limits corporate-action upside; a KKR/ICG-style bid failed at higher levels in 2025.