Headline
KAKU flags FY26 net earnings at least 25% lower on drought, Middle East conflict and softer macadamia prices, the only clear profit warning in a results-heavy tape.
What UK Plc said today
The lone profit warning came from KAKU, guiding FY26 net earnings at least 25% below FY25 on "exceptionally dry conditions" at the farm end-2025, the Middle East conflict, and a softening international macadamia market. No revised outlook was offered.
Against that, the results tape skewed positive. EMR raised FY26 adjusted PBT guidance to at least £6.2m from £5.2m (a ~55% YoY step-up), with adjusted PBT already +256% in H1 on flat revenue — operating leverage doing the work. APN pushed FY27 adjusted EBITDA guidance to c.£49m (+13%) after FY26 revenue landed at £160m (+50%), though it flagged "significantly higher whey protein costs." BBSN reaffirmed FY guidance with H1 net revenue nearly doubling (Adj. PBT +120%), naming a "record multi-year" MiniMBA contract with Omnicom. CAML reaffirmed FY26 metal production guidance with H1 revenue +46% on higher copper (+39%) and zinc (+26%) prices, sitting on $96.3m net cash. HOC reiterated production but widened AISC guidance to $2,380–2,500/oz (from $2,157–2,320), and disclosed a June fatality at Inmaculada. SUS described "further robust growth" with year-to-date deal numbers up 50% despite a 3% fall in the UK car finance market, though Aspen faces "a somnolent property market."
Governance/strategy stood out at HWG, where Peel Holdings' 172.5p offer document argues Harworth's public listing "unlikely to generate appropriate risk-adjusted returns," calling the data-centre/powered-land pivot "early-stage and highly speculative." WPHO relisted after an accounting-irregularities investigation, cut FY26 revenue guidance to c.€1.8m, and disclosed its new auditor issued a disclaimer of opinion over inventory verification.
Statistical releases
- ONS Low carbon and renewable energy economy R&D estimates, UK 2020–2024 — sector R&D intensity backdrop.
- ONS Environmental economy business surveys development plan, UK — methodology paper, no market read.
- ONS Climate-related mortality, England and Wales, 1988–2025 — long-run heat/cold mortality series.
- ONS Deaths registered weekly, England and Wales, w/e 14 Aug 2026 — routine vital statistics.
Policy / monetary
HMT published the FCA Annual Report and Accounts 2025/26. Nothing material from BoE.
Themes
- Operating leverage over top-line: EMR delivered a 256% jump in adjusted PBT on flat revenue; BBSN more than doubled adj. PBT on revenue up 98%; CAML EBITDA margin moved to 52% from 40%. Where cost bases are held, current price/mix is dropping through.
- Commodity-tied names benefit from prices, not volumes: CAML copper +1% volume, +39% price; HOC production reiterated but AISC guidance raised — margin cushion is external, not operational.
- Small-cap capital raising remains open: eight equity issues today (BFSP, BNC, PAIM, BRAI, CLC, HFEL, OIT, SBAR, TMPL) — mostly small tickets, several at premium to NAV, indicating investment-trust and VCT plumbing is functioning normally.
- Governance stress at the fringe: WPHO (audit disclaimer, restatements, relisting) and HWG (public-market rationale challenged by bidder) both raise questions about the value of AIM/Main Market listing for sub-scale, capital-hungry stories.
Watch
- 2 Sep: TTG H1 2026 results
- 9 Sep: CNS H1 results and investor presentation
- 10 Sep: INPP H1 2026 results
- 14 Sep: MPE H1 2026 interim results (analyst presentation 9:30am)
- 24 Sep: BPCP Half Year Results
- Week of 21 Sep: GWI full H1 report
- Early October: CAML completion of Cygnus Metals acquisition
- Year-end: HOC Monte Do Carmo investment decision