Brave Bison Group plc (BBSN) — Investment Research Note
Executive summary
Brave Bison is an AIM-listed marketing and technology partner combining a high-margin eLearning platform (MiniMBA), a YouTube/social media network, and consultancy/influencer services for global brands. Across 2020-2025 the new management team has grown net revenue >8x to £34.1m, delivered five consecutive years of EBITDA growth, and made the business consistently cash-generative; FY25 net revenue +60%, Adj. EBITDA +51% to £6.8m, with five acquisitions completed (most notably MiniMBA for £19m at 5.3x EBITDA). The single most important valuation point today is whether MiniMBA's platform economics (~33% EBITDA margin, 18%+ organic growth, low marginal cost) and the strategic System1 stake justify a higher rating than a typical marketing-services rollup.
Fair value estimate
- Methodology: EV/EBITDA on FY26E consensus Adj. EBITDA, plus mark-to-market on System1 stake, less net debt/acquisition liabilities.
- Key assumptions:
- FY26E Adj. EBITDA £9.4m (consensus, with Board now flagging upside given Q1 net revenue +58% and MiniMBA +18% organic) 2026-04 final results
- Multiple range 9–11x EV/EBITDA — reasonable for a 60% revenue growth, ~20% margin AIM-listed marketing group with platform optionality. UK marketing-services peer set typically trades 6–10x EBITDA.
- System1 28% stake: ~£10m current market value (cost ~£8.4m, unrealised gain £1.7m to 28 April 2026) 2026-04
- Net debt: ~£0 (Board expects net cash at 30 June 2026); add back ~£4m of deferred/contingent acquisition liabilities
| Scenario | EBITDA multiple | Core EV | + System1 | - Acq liab | Equity Value | Per share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low | 9.0x | £84.6m | £10m | (£4m) | £90.6m | ~88p |
| Mid | 10.0x | £94.0m | £10m | (£4m) | £100.0m | ~98p |
| High | 11.0x | £103.4m | £10m | (£4m) | £109.4m | ~107p |
- Fair value range: 88p – 107p per share, implying a market cap of £90m – £109m.
- Mid-point: ~98p / £100m vs. current £84.2m / ~82p
- Implied upside: ~+18% at mid; ~+7% to +30% across the range
- View: Modestly undervalued.
Sector context
- ICB classification (Consumer Discretionary / Media) is technically correct but the business is closer to UK marketing services / IT services.
- Quality profile: ABOVE typical AIM marketing-services peers on growth and margin trajectory; IN LINE on balance sheet (acquisition-heavy, modest debt); BELOW pure software/platform peers on durable moat.
- Listed peers: Next 15 Group (NFG), S4 Capital (SFOR), M&C Saatchi (SAA), The Mission Group (TMG, which BBSN passed on acquiring in 2024).
Investment thesis
- MiniMBA is the platform inside the marketing services wrapper. Acquired July 2025 for 5.3x FY25E EBITDA, generating ~£3.6m EBITDA on £11m revenue (~33% margin), with 6,000 paying delegates/year, enterprise customers (Nestlé, Salesforce, Amex), and 18%+ organic growth in FY26 YTD — capital-light with minimal marginal cost. This is the operating-leverage engine. 2025-06 acquisition circular, 2026-04 final results
- Track record of disciplined, accretive M&A. Five acquisitions in 2025 doubled revenue scale; all prior acquisitions integrated onto one operating platform; Adj. EPS grew at 18% CAGR over four years; consistent FY upgrades through 2024-25. 2026-04 final results, 2025-09 interim
- Strong near-term operating momentum with FY26 upside. Q1 FY26 net revenue +58% YoY; Board upgraded FY26 outlook; net cash expected at 30 June 2026 despite £8.5m System1 investment. The System1 stake adds an embedded marketing-effectiveness-data optionality at modest cost. 2026-04 final results
Key risks
- Acquisition integration risk and goodwill exposure. Intangibles ballooned to £49.7m (vs £39.1m net assets); goodwill £36.6m; statutory PBT collapsed from £2.0m to £0.7m in FY25 due to £3.3m exceptional acquisition/restructuring costs. A failed integration of MiniMBA or MTM would materially impair the bull case. 2026-04 final results
- Cyclical and concentration exposures. Marketing services are tied to advertiser budgets; the Group flagged Middle East conflict slowing some client spend in Q1 FY26; advertising/YouTube revenue is exposed to platform algorithm changes (a known historical risk after the Facebook monetisation shift in 2019). 2026-04 final results
- Owner-operator concentration & related-party scale. Green family controls 14%+; multiple ongoing related-party transactions with Tangent Marketing Services and The Printed Group (disclosed and arms-length, but a non-trivial governance feature). News Corp, Mark Ritson and Lord Ashcroft together hold meaningful blocks — share register is concentrated. 2026-04 final results, note 27
Operating leverage
The Group is increasingly a mix of two cost structures. Services revenue (~£24.5m net, £18m of which is people-cost-led) carries near-normal industrial leverage — modest. Platform revenue (£9.6m net, comprising MiniMBA course revenue and media-network ad revenue) has very high fixed-cost economics: the CFO explicitly notes "almost no marginal cost to growing channel or course revenues" 2026-04 final results. MiniMBA alone delivers ~33% EBITDA margin (£3.6m EBITDA / £11m revenue per the FY25 acquisition prospectus); incremental MiniMBA revenue likely earns 40–50% contribution margin. Group blended Adj. EBITDA margin improved H1→H2 from 19.2% to 20.4% even as loss-making acquisitions diluted the average. A 10–20% revenue beat above current FY26 consensus (£44.8m) — entirely plausible given Q1 +58% and 18% MiniMBA organic — could add £2–3m to Adj. EBITDA, or 25–40% above the £9.4m consensus. That is meaningful but not multiples-of-profit leverage; this is operating leverage rated 60–70 rather than 80+ because the services half of the business limits the through-the-cycle drop-through. The key inflection point is MiniMBA scale: if it doubles delegate volume over 2–3 years on a roughly fixed platform cost base, group margin steps up materially.
Value-trap signals
- None identified that suggest structural cheapness. The opposite concern — that consensus already anticipates much of the growth — is more relevant.
- Worth monitoring: heavy goodwill load (75% of intangibles), the gap between Adj. and statutory PBT (£5.6m vs £0.7m), and related-party arrangements.
Earnings vs. expectations
- FY24: Guided net revenue ~£21m / Adj EBITDA ~£4.4m; delivered £21.3m / £4.5m. Beat (modest). 2025-04 final results
- H1 FY25 (Sept 2025 interims): Tracking; FY25 guidance raised. Trading update Jan 2026 indicated FY25 net revenue not less than £33.5m / EBITDA £6.5m vs consensus £31.5m / £6.1m. Beat. 2026-01 trading update
- FY25 final: Net revenue £34.1m vs £33.5m consensus; Adj. EBITDA £6.8m vs £6.5m; Adj. EPS 6.9p vs 6.4p. Beat. 2026-04 final results
- Pattern: Consistent modest beats; multiple FY upgrades through each year; Board commentary is conservative-to-confident, not promotional. This is one of the stronger features of the equity story.
Conviction
3 — moderate.
- Anchors: Clean disclosure with audited accounts; consistent five-year track record; explicit FY26 consensus published; MiniMBA acquisition multiple (5.3x) is a usable anchor for sum-of-parts.
- Limiters: Heavy M&A means historical multiples shift quickly; goodwill and acquisition costs muddy statutory earnings; System1 stake adds a moving piece (BBSN does not control System1); a "fair" EV/EBITDA multiple is judgement-based given the platform/services mix.