Headline
UK corporates flag a softer macro mood as Middle East conflict and AI valuation pressure ripple through VCT NAVs while operationally focused names lift guidance.
What UK Plc said today
No profit warnings. The clearest upside signal came from OPT, which raised FY26 guidance with adjusted EBITDA now expected ~10% ahead of prior market expectations on 15% revenue growth to £121m. EMAN issued new guidance for FY performance "marginally ahead" of 2025 after revenue rose 26.5% to £58.5m and market share gained 80bps to 6.7%, though management flagged "a degree of uncertainty in the full year outlook." DEBS (formerly boohoo) reported swing to Adjusted EBIT of £7.0m from a £30.5m loss and guided FY27 EBITDA to a "double-digit improvement," all brands now profitable at EBITDA level. TAM delivered 20% revenue growth and 22% EPS growth, lifting the dividend 42% and reaffirming its £30bn AUM target by FY29. IHC returned to adjusted operating profit (£0.8m vs £1.9m loss) on 24% revenue growth, and IGR reinstated its dividend after delivering reaffirmed-guidance margins from a slimmer post-Americas-disposal footprint.
Against that, the two VCTs BMD and BVT posted near-identical 8–9% H1 NAV declines, with BVT quantifying a 14% drop in listed assets over the final two months of H1 attributed verbatim to the "US war with Iran (end Feb 2026)." STEM saw H1 revenue fall 7% but said rate of decline is moderating. FORG reported revenue down 54% with a going-concern flag and €8m goodwill impairment as it pivots from gasification to mining.
Statistical releases
No scheduled ONS releases today.
Policy / monetary
Three items from HMT, none materially market-moving: Terms of Reference published for Chris Woolard's Wholesale Digital Markets Champion remit; the independent-forecasts database for the UK economy was refreshed; and June Market Engagement Group minutes were released covering gilts, sterling and broader market themes with the Chancellor. Nothing from BoE.
Themes
Middle East conflict is now an explicit valuation input. Both BMD and BVT use near-identical language on "geopolitical instability, including conflict in the Middle East" weighing on confidence, with BVT specifically attributing 14% of listed-asset declines to the Iran conflict. MDZ also flags Middle East airport project risk. This is no longer abstract macro hedging — it's being booked into NAVs.
AI is being flagged as a software-valuation headwind, not tailwind, by investors. BMD newly highlights "artificial intelligence impact on software valuations" as a principal risk; BVT echoes the language around "AI on software development and valuation frameworks." For VCT portfolios heavy in UK tech, this is a notable shift in tone versus a year ago.
Capital returns are back. IGR launching a buyback up to 9.83m shares alongside dividend reinstatement; MPE a £3m buyback; RKT completing an £540m+ buyback at average £48.55; TAM lifting dividend 42%; DEBS adjusted EBITDA up 35%. Among operationally-leveraged names with cash, the capital-return reflex is firmly engaged.
Dispersion between asset managers and their underlying portfolios. TAM delivering 22% AUM/I growth and 52% adjusted operating margin sits awkwardly next to BMD/BVT writing down growth-stage UK assets — the wrapper economics are diverging sharply from the underlying NAVs.
Watch
- CLBX preliminary results — 22 June 2026
- GANA placing admission — 22 June 2026
- FIPP First Admission — 23 June 2026; GM 15 July, Second Admission 16 July
- FORG investor presentation — 17 June 2026, 14:00 BST
- PPET H1 2026 results — 29 June 2026
- SOLI FY results — 29 June 2026
- [4BB] investor presentation — 29 June 2026
- FOX convertible-conversion admission — c. 29 June 2026
- OHGR preliminary results — 6 July 2026
- VAST Aprelevka acquisition longstop — 7 July 2026
- WWH investor presentation — 14 July 2026
- GLR copper-belt disposal longstop — 15 September 2026