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Pagegroup PLC

Industrial Goods and Services First-pass screen £439m
380/1000 Overall fit
AI beneficiary 35% 38
Operating leverage 25% 45
Valuation 25% 30
Downside protection 15% 42

First-pass take

PageGroup is a pro-cyclical recruitment services company showing severe macro-sensitivity (FY2025: revenue -7.6%, operating profit -59% on temporary hiring weakness and euro headwinds). No direct AI revenue exposure; AI/tech tools are operational only. Conversion rates collapsed from 6.2% to 2.7% despite cost-cutting, signaling demand deterioration rather than structural leverage.

Flags

cyclicalno-valuation-dataloss-makingmacro-sensitivedividend-cutlow-profitability