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№ 055 27 filings · 2021-09-29 → 2026-09-21

B90 HOLDINGS PLC

B90
Travel and Leisure Share price 4.15p Market cap £18m Overall fit 220 /1000

Not an AI beneficiary in the sense the strategy demands — it spends on AI tools to run a paid-media affiliate business, not sell into the AI buildout. Moderate operating leverage, fair-not-cheap valuation, and a going-concern flag on a £17m AIM cap place this well outside the strategy's sweet spot.

Fair value range 4p–5p Mid case · £18m
Absolute upside -3.8% vs current market cap
Conviction 3/5 confidence in fair call
Supports the call
  • Two clean audited years post-turnaround
  • Simple net-cash balance sheet, transparent cost stack
  • EV/EBITDA and EV/revenue triangulate to similar range
Limits the call
  • Tiny absolute scale makes single-partner or algo shocks swing valuation materially
  • Structural gen-AI search risk to the paid-affiliate model is unquantifiable
Methodology

Blended EV/forward-EBITDA and EV/forward-revenue vs. affiliate peers

In one line · bull case

Cleaned-up B2B iGaming affiliate now marginally profitable and cash-generative with 38% revenue growth, but priced roughly at fair value on realistic forward multiples.

In one line · biggest risk

Structural pressure on Google-PPC-led affiliate economics from generative AI search, compounded by tiny-cap fragility and a live going-concern flag.

Drivers
AI beneficiary 32 /100
Uses AI/ML internally for campaign optimisation but is not a picks-and-shovels seller into the AI buildout; press-release AI language, not receiver economics.
Operating leverage 45 /100
Marketing spend scales with revenue (48% of sales); only ~€1.5m of central admin plus amortisation is truly fixed — incremental margin ~15-25%, not platform-like.
Earnings vs expectations 62 /100
Modest but consistent revenue beats vs. management guidance across last four disclosed periods; EBITDA held in line as upside is reinvested.
Growth momentum 70 /100
Revenue +103% FY24→FY25 and +38% H1 26 YoY; growth is real but off a very small base.
Moat 25 /100
Owned domains (Oddsen.nu) and 200+ B2B partner relationships provide some stickiness but core capability is arbitraging Google PPC — replicable and cost-inflating.
Earnings quality 55 /100
Cash-converting operations (€0.5m operating cash H1 26) but earnings small in absolute terms; large intangibles vulnerable to impairment if growth misses.
Management quality 50 /100
Delivered the B2C→B2B pivot and returned to profit; recent chair/CEO separation strengthens governance but track record at scale is unproven.
Cyclicality 55 /100
Consumer discretionary iGaming ad-spend is moderately cyclical; sports calendar peaks (World Cup, Euros) create material lumpiness.
Leverage 15 /100
Net cash of €1.47m, no borrowings; only concern is €0.6m disputed legacy creditor.
Value-trap signals · 5
  • Material uncertainty over going concern flagged by auditor and management
  • €0.6m legacy creditor of uncertain timing that could be called on demand
  • Structural exposure to generative-search disruption of Google PPC affiliate model
  • Large goodwill/intangibles (€6.3m) vs. small revenue base — sensitive to growth-rate assumptions
  • History of settling liabilities and fees in equity (dilution when share price is weak)

B90 Holdings PLC (AIM: B90) — Research Note

Executive summary

B90 is a small AIM-listed performance marketing / MarTech business that acquires iGaming customers for operator partners (Bet365, Stake.com, ComeOn, etc.) using paid PPC, owned affiliate websites (Oddsen.nu, Bet90.com) and machine-learning-assisted campaign optimisation. After a 2022–2024 restructuring away from B2C gaming to a pure B2B affiliate model, revenue more than doubled to €7.15m in FY25 with €1.1m EBITDA and a return to profitability, and H1 2026 showed +38% revenue growth to €3.325m 2026-09-21 interim; 2026-05-06 final. The single most important point for valuation today is that the business is now marginally cash-generative at very small absolute scale, with a material-uncertainty going-concern flag and a €0.6m disputed legacy liability that limits how much the market will capitalise near-term earnings.

Fair value estimate

Fair value range: 3.5p – 4.5p per share, implying market cap of £15.4m – £19.8m.

Methodology: blended EV/forward-revenue and EV/forward-EBITDA against small-cap affiliate peers, sense-checked against forward earnings.

  • FY25 revenue €7.15m (£6.1m), EBITDA €1.1m (£0.95m). Cash €1.47m (~£1.3m) at H1 26; no debt.
  • Applying 12–15× forward EBITDA of ~£1.0–1.2m → EV £12–18m + net cash → mcap ~£13–19m.
  • Applying 2.0–2.5× FY26E revenue of ~£8m → EV £16–20m + net cash → mcap ~£17–21m.
  • Midpoint ~4.0p per share vs. current 3.95p.

Vs. current £17.4m mcap: absolute upside/downside ≈ ±10%; central case = FAIR. The stock has already rallied ~130% from the 2.10p March 2026 low and now sits in the middle of a defensible range; the "cheap on trailing" case was 12 months ago.

Sector context

Confirmed classification: Travel & Leisure / Consumer Discretionary — iGaming affiliate marketing. Peer set includes Gambling.com Group (Nasdaq: GAMB), Better Collective (STO: BETCO), and previously XLMedia. Quality profile is materially below listed peers: B90 is roughly 20–50× smaller by revenue than Gambling.com or Better Collective, has a material uncertainty over going concern, and lacks the multi-vertical diversification of those peers. Growth is in line with the sector but off a tiny base. Leverage profile is superior (net cash) but the balance sheet is small in absolute terms.

Investment thesis

  • Cleaned-up B2B affiliate model is now profitable and cash-generative. FY25 delivered €7.15m revenue (2× YoY), €1.1m EBITDA (66% growth) and €0.39m net profit — the first profitable year after years of losses; H1 26 continued the trajectory with 38% revenue growth and positive operating cash flow of €0.5m 2026-05-06 final; 2026-09-21 interim.
  • Owned digital assets + established B2B partner base provide some moat vs. pure paid-media affiliates. Oddsen.nu (20-year Norwegian sports affiliate) and repositioned Bet90.com give diversified traffic sources beyond Google PPC, valuable as competition and CAC in Google channels have risen 2026-09-21 interim.
  • Optionality on new-vertical pilots without material capital risk. Management is testing deployment of the marketing/data platform into non-gaming high-intent verticals via disciplined pilots — small chance of a step-change in TAM, low downside from measured pilot approach 2026-09-21 interim.

Key risks

  • Going concern material uncertainty flagged by auditors relating to €0.6m legacy liability that "could be repayable at short notice" and forecast dependence on continued revenue growth. Cash is only €1.47m 2026-05-06 final; 2026-09-21 interim.
  • Concentrated dependence on Google PPC channels and search algorithm changes. Management explicitly cites rising Google-led acquisition costs and search-algorithm risk as principal risks; generative AI search fundamentally reshapes the discovery model B90 depends on 2026-05-06 final.
  • Regulatory / VIP-player concentration in iGaming. Top ~5% of players drive a disproportionate share of commission revenue; jurisdictional regulatory change (UK gambling duty, EU markets) can compress operator economics and thus B90's take rate 2026-05-06 final.

Operating leverage

Operating leverage is modest, not high. FY25 cost base: marketing/selling €3.44m (48% of revenue), salaries €1.71m (24%), other admin €1.08m (15%), amortisation €0.54m. Roughly 60–65% of costs are variable/growth-linked (marketing spend, plus salary growth as headcount rises with volume); only central admin (€1m) and amortisation (€0.5m) behave as fixed. In H1 2026, revenue grew 38% but EBITDA was flat as marketing spend scaled with revenue (€1.72m vs €0.99m) 2026-09-21 interim. This is characteristic of a paid-media affiliate — incremental revenue drops through at ~15–25% contribution, not the 50%+ you would see in a platform SaaS or capacity-constrained business. A 10–20% upside revenue surprise would plausibly add 20–40% to EBITDA, not multiples of it. There is no observable inflection point (fixed-cost data centre, SaaS gross margin curve, network effect) that would flip this profile.

Value-trap signals

  • Material uncertainty over going concern in both the FY25 audit report and H1 26 interim note.
  • €0.6m legacy liability of uncertain timing that could crystallise on demand.
  • Non-independent Isle of Man holding structure; small board with recent chair transition.
  • Auditor emphasis-of-matter on impairment sensitivity of Oddsen.nu and PPC intangibles (goodwill of €1.9m and intangibles €4.4m dwarf tangible book value).
  • Historical share issuance to settle liabilities in shares (dilution risk if trading disappoints).
  • Structural pressure on the Google PPC affiliate model from generative-search evolution — the risk that today's cash cow is a melting ice cube.

Earnings vs. expectations

Available data points (management guidance is disclosed but no analyst consensus is referenced):

  • FY25 trading update (Feb 2026): revenue "ahead of market expectations", EBITDA "in line" — beat/in-line 2026-02-02 trading update; subsequently confirmed with FY25 revenue €7.15m and EBITDA €1.1m in May 2026 finals.
  • H1 26 trading update (Aug 2026): revenue "ahead of management expectations", EBITDA "comparable to prior year" as investment absorbed operating leverage — beat on revenue, in-line on EBITDA 2026-08-05 trading update; H1 26 interims delivered €3.325m revenue vs. €2.407m PY (+38%) and adjusted EBITDA €0.31m vs €0.30m PY.
  • H1 25 trading update (Jul 2025): at least in line with expectations — delivered at 75% revenue growth 2025-07-22; 2025-09-22.

Pattern: consistent modest beats on revenue vs. management-set expectations across the last 18 months; EBITDA held in line as management deliberately reinvests upside into marketing and headcount. Track record is short (~4 disclosed periods post-turnaround) but clean.

Conviction

Conviction: 3 (moderate).

Anchors: (i) two consecutive years of audited financials showing a clean turnaround pattern, (ii) balance sheet is transparent and simple — net cash, no debt, no complex structures beyond the disputed €0.6m creditor, (iii) EV/EBITDA and EV/revenue methodologies converge on similar ranges.

Limits: (i) the business is so small (£17m mcap, ~£6m revenue) that any single VIP player loss, Google algo change or regulatory tweak swings the valuation range materially, (ii) the AI/generative-search disruption thesis for affiliate marketing cuts both ways — management frames it as opportunity, but it plausibly compresses the entire industry's long-run economics.

Fit to investor profile

This is a poor fit for the stated strategy. B90 uses AI operationally to optimise its own campaigns but does not sell into the AI value chain; the "AI-led MarTech" positioning in the RNS wire is marketing language, not a genuine picks-and-shovels revenue line. Operating leverage is moderate, not high. Valuation is fair-not-cheap on trailing numbers. Downside protection is weak (going concern flag, tiny cap, regulatory exposure).

Filings consulted · 37

Every document the LLM read for this note. Click any row to open the source.

  1. 2026-09-21Interim Results2026-09-21_9780767_interim-results.md0.90
  2. 2026-09-15Result OF Agm2026-09-15_9772721_result-of-agm.md0.30
  3. 2026-09-03Notice OF Interim Results2026-09-03_9752896_notice-of-interim-results.md0.90
  4. 2026-08-28Notice OF Agm2026-08-28_9744390_notice-of-agm.md0.30
  5. 2026-08-05Trading Update2026-08-05_9704830_trading-update.md0.85
  6. 2026-05-06Final Results2026-05-06_9553569_final-results.md1.00
  7. 2026-04-27Notice OF Final Results2026-04-27_9538186_notice-of-final-results.md1.00
  8. 2026-02-02Trading Update2026-02-02_9399732_trading-update.md0.72
  9. 2025-09-22Interim Results2025-09-22_9121630_interim-results.md0.58
  10. 2025-09-18Notice OF Investor Presentation2025-09-18_9115167_notice-of-investor-presentation.md0.46
  11. 2025-09-16Result OF Agm And Notice OF Interim Results2025-09-16_9110790_result-of-agm-and-notice-of-interim-results.md0.58
  12. 2025-08-29Notice OF Agm2025-08-29_9078777_notice-of-agm.md0.20
  13. 2025-07-22Trading Update2025-07-22_8990251_trading-update.md0.55
  14. 2025-05-12Online Investor Presentation2025-05-12_8871438_online-investor-presentation.md0.46
  15. 2025-05-07Final Results2025-05-07_8863982_final-results.md0.65
  16. 2025-02-04Trading Update2025-02-04_8719576_trading-update.md0.55
  17. 2024-09-23Interim Results2024-09-23_8431288_interim-results.md0.41
  18. 2024-09-17Result OF Agm And Notice OF Interim Results2024-09-17_8421138_result-of-agm-and-notice-of-interim-results.md0.41
  19. 2024-08-30Notice OF Agm2024-08-30_8391312_notice-of-agm.md0.14
  20. 2024-07-30Trading Update2024-07-30_8337005_trading-update.md0.38
  21. 2024-05-16Final Results2024-05-16_8200125_final-results.md0.45
  22. 2024-02-01Trading Update2024-02-01_8016255_trading-update.md0.38
  23. 2023-09-28Unaudited Interim Results2023-09-28_7782609_unaudited-interim-results.md0.23
  24. 2023-09-15Placing And Subscription Conversion OF Clns2023-09-15_7757087_placing-and-subscription-conversion-of-clns.md0.17
  25. 2023-07-31Result OF Agm2023-07-31_7666068_result-of-agm.md0.07
  26. 2023-07-12Acquisition OF Emwys Licence Agreement Cln Issue2023-07-12_7626972_acquisition-of-emwys-licence-agreement-cln-issue.md0.19
  27. 2023-06-30Fundraising And Board Changes2023-06-30_7604639_fundraising-and-board-changes.md0.17
  28. 2023-06-30Final Results2023-06-30_7604462_final-results.md0.25
  29. 2023-02-060 5 Million Raise And Trading Update2023-02-06_7356360_0-5-million-raise-and-trading-update.md0.21
  30. 2022-09-23Unaudited Interim Results2022-09-23_7065503_unaudited-interim-results.md0.23
  31. 2022-09-14Result OF Agm2022-09-14_7315723_result-of-agm.md0.07
  32. 2022-06-21Final Results2022-06-21_7021688_final-results.md0.25
  33. 2022-06-21Acquisition OF T4u Marketing Ltd2022-06-21_7021794_acquisition-of-t4u-marketing-ltd.md0.19
  34. 2022-05-13Oddsen Acquisition Update2022-05-13_6890444_oddsen-acquisition-update.md0.19
  35. 2021-12-22Acquisition2021-12-22_6913166_acquisition.md0.19
  36. 2021-09-30Acquisition OF Oddsen NU And Subscription2021-09-30_6598993_acquisition-of-oddsen-nu-and-subscription.md0.19
  37. 2021-09-29Unaudited Interim Results2021-09-29_6595083_unaudited-interim-results.md0.23

This research note was authored by a large language model after reading 27 regulatory filings published between 2021-09-29 and 2026-09-21. Each citation refers to a specific RNS announcement in the underlying data set. The note is an opinion, not advice. Do your own work before risking capital.